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Turkey central bank inches up inflation forecast, keeps rate cuts on track

On February 12, 2026, the CBRT raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 15-21% while keeping the `interim target` at 16%
TurkStat's January revisions to the CPI base year to 2025 and methodology, plus headline inflation at 44% y/y end-2024 and 30.65% in January, underpin the update amid data reliability concerns.
On the markets dashboard, USD/TRY remains under control while Turkish eurobond auctions stay strong; five-year CDS test the 200-level as loan markets show high rollover rates with low costs.
Another rate cut is near certain, but uncertainty over the size leaves the pace open; a 100-150bp average cut per meeting would lower the policy rate to 28% by end-2026.
On May 14, 2026, the CBRT will release its next quarterly inflation report, and the MPC will meet on March 12; eight rate-setting meetings in 2026 will shape policy.

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16 Articles

intellinews.com

Center

Turkey hikes end-2026 official inflation forecast to 15-21% band

Range pushed up from previously stated 13-19%.

2 days ago·Berlin, Germany

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thepress.net

+3 Reposted by 3 other sources

Center

Turkey's central bank lifts 2026 inflation forecasts

Turkey's central bank on Thursday increased its estimates for inflation as officials try to rein in soaring price increases that have weighed on the economy for years.

2 days ago

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Reuters

Center

Turkey central bank inches up inflation forecast, keeps rate cuts on track

Turkey's central bank nudged up by two percentage points its year-end inflation forecast range to 15-21% on Thursday and maintained its interim 16% target, despite market doubts about whether the downward trend seen throughout 2025 is on track.

2 days ago·United Kingdom

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Daily Sabah

Right

Turkish central bank lifts inflation forecast range, vows tight stance

The Turkish central bank lifted its year-end inflation forecast to the 15%-21% range, while keeping its interim target at the same level of 16%, its...

2 days ago·Türkiye

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Habertürk

The Central Bank of Turkey (Tcmb) Has Announced Its Inflation Forecast for 2026-2027: What Happened to the Tcmb's Inflation Forecast? Did It Increase or Decrease?

Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced the first inflation figures of the year. While the inflation forecast for 2026 appears to have increased, Karahan stated, "In 2025, we continued to gradually reap the benefits of our tight monetary policy." So, what is the TCMB's inflation forecast for 2026-2027?

2 days ago·Beyoğlu, Türkiye

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