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What Impact Will the US Attack on Venezuela Have on Oil Prices?

US military strike captures Venezuela’s President Maduro amid maritime oil blockade, causing around 25% drop in Venezuelan production with limited immediate global market impact.

  • On Saturday, the United States launched a large-scale strike in Venezuela, and President Donald Trump said it captured President Nicolás Maduro amid a maritime blockade of Venezuelan oil exports.
  • Amid the blockade, U.S. officials said the operation targets actors accused of aiding narcotics trafficking, while Venezuela's government alleges the attack aims to seize its oil and minerals.
  • Although small in global terms, Venezuela's oil is unusually heavy and hard to replace, producing 1.1 million barrels a day mainly for China and India, with more than 67 per cent heavy crude and a previous production fall of around 25 per cent.
  • Analysts cautioned that the immediate market impact appears muted as oil prices edged lower on Friday, the first trading day of 2026, with recent trading around $61.
  • Analysts at Kpler say the market may be underpricing risk, with traders eyeing the Sunday night open amid fears escalation involving additional players could raise Venezuela-specific premiums above the $10+/barrel past Iranian strike range.
Insights by Ground AI

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The military operation that the United States carried out on Saturday in Venezuela and that ended with the arrest of Nicolás Maduro has put the focus on the possible impact on a market of oil and fuels that has been dealing with geopolitical crises of draught for months. The country has the largest proven reserves of 'black gold' of the planet (about 303 billion barrels), but it already represents only 0.8% of the global production of crude oil.…

·Madrid, Spain
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Live Mint broke the news in New Delhi, India on Saturday, January 3, 2026.
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