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California’s Population Shrank in Trump’s 1st Immigration Crackdown. It Could Happen Again

  • California's population declined during the last Trump administration due to slower immigration and other factors, causing the state to lose a House seat in 2021 for the first time.
  • This decline followed increased obstacles to U.S. entry under Trump and was influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, although the Newsom administration fears a repeat economic risk.
  • California is home to the largest immigrant population in the U.S., with about 49% from Latin America, 41% from Asia, and immigrants representing roughly a tenth of the workforce, including many undocumented workers.
  • A recent UC Merced report estimates removing undocumented immigrants would shrink the state economy by $275 billion, while the Los Angeles Chamber warns enforcement actions disrupt communities and threaten public safety and the economy.
  • If immigration slows or stops, experts warn California could face further population loss, economic setbacks, and potential loss of congressional representation after the 2030 Census.
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California’s economy could face a significant loss without the presence of undocumented workers. An analysis by the University of California at Merced and the Bay Area Council Economic Institute estimated that, without its labor participation and consumption power, the state would lose about $278.4 billion in economic activity, equivalent to 9% of the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This loss would include not only the income and wages gen…

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Cal Matters broke the news in Sacramento, United States on Friday, June 27, 2025.
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