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Trump and referendum talk to mark a tough-to-predict Quebec election, analysts say
Five parties could win seats, and analysts say vote splitting may make a minority result more likely.
Quebec Premier Christine Frechette is expected to trigger the official election campaign this week, sending voters to the polls on Oct. 5 in a race where five parties are competing for seats.
Four years ago, Coalition Avenir held a commanding lead at the start of the campaign, but Philippe Fournier notes the party's advantage has steadily declined as the race tightened significantly.
A Journal poll from earlier in Aug found that 49 per cent of respondents could change their minds by election day, reflecting what Université du Québec à Montréal professor Danielle Pilette describes as voter disappointment with current leaders.
McGill University political science professor Éric Belanger noted that parties face pressure to present a clear vision for restructuring, as the Balanced Budget Act requires the province to eliminate its deficit by 2029–30.
The Parti remains the favourite to form government according to QC125, though Philippe Fournier warns a potential vote split could increase the likelihood of a minority result in what he calls an unpredictable race.