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High Jet Fuel Costs Could Persist to 2028, Warns Ryanair CEO
He said prices are about 50% higher than Brent crude and warned airlines are cutting capacity to limit exposure to higher fuel costs.
On Thursday, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary reassured the industry that Europe faces no jet fuel shortages this winter or before summer 2027, provided no unforeseen events occur.
Despite supply stability, O'Leary warned that jet fuel remains roughly 50% more expensive than Brent crude, a premium expected to persist for 12 to 18 months due to refinery disruptions.
Refinery attacks by Ukrainians and Iranians, combined with tanker shortages, create a "real challenge" for capacity. George Shaw of Kpler noted that jet fuel prices are tied to the record-tight diesel market.
European airlines face an "enormous cost challenge next year," struggling to maintain balance sheets. Ryanair reduced its winter flight schedule last month, cutting its full-year passenger target to 214 million from 216 million.
Increased imports from Asia, with nearly 900,000 tonnes scheduled to arrive, are expected to keep Europe supplied in the coming months. These shipments, however, are unlikely to bring significant relief on persistently high fuel prices.
Fears about this had emerged in September because of the increasing geopolitical crises. The Gulf countries, which are major producers of oil and kerosene, are struggling to export their production, due to the war in the Middle East. The oil installations of these countries are attacked both by Iran (it itself attacked by the United States) and by the Huthis rebels of Yemen. In addition to the attacks of Russian refineries by Ukraine, which defe…