US EditionThe Walmart Recession Alarm Is Ringing Louder Than It Has in 20 Years — And Wall Street Is Listening
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The Walmart Recession Alarm Is Ringing Louder Than It Has in 20 Years — And Wall Street Is Listening
A recession indicator tied to Walmart’s stock performance relative to the broader market just hit its highest level in two decades. That’s not a statistic you brush off. The signal is straightforward: when Walmart shares significantly outperform the S&P 500 over a sustained period, it historically means consumers are trading down — abandoning discretionary spending in favor of bare essentials. And right now, the gap between Walmart’s performance…
The Walmart Recession Signal (an index comparing Walmart stock prices with those of luxury brands) has surged ahead of the past four U.S. recessions.
Jim Paulsen, the head of investment firm Leuthold Group, designed an indicator called the “Walmart Reception Signal” (WRS), which follows the price...
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