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The SpaceX Slip Multiplier: A Reference-Class Model of Announced vs. Actual Timelines
Summary by New Space Economy
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The SpaceX Slip Multiplier: A Reference-Class Model of Announced vs. Actual Timelines
An outside-view forecasting exercise built from SpaceX's own track record (2002 to 2026), plus xAI's standalone history (2023 to 2026) as the merged SpaceXAI division. Every dated claim is hyperlinked to a primary or authoritative source; unverifiable claims are omitted rather than estimated. Facts are current as of June 1, 2026.
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