Election Handicapper Moves 3 Senate Races Toward Democrats
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Trump’s low approval and other national factors are pushing more Republican-held seats into competitive territory.
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted three Senate race ratings this week, moving Alaska and Ohio to toss-ups while designating North Carolina as Leans Democratic.
- Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, requiring Democrats to flip four seats for a majority while Republicans need only one toss-up win to preserve their control.
- Incumbent Sens. Dan Sullivan of Alaska and Jon Husted of Ohio are vying for reelection, with Husted facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who leads by 8 percentage points in the Buckeye State.
- In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, prompting the Senate Leadership Fund to commit $71 million to boost Whatley.
- The handicapper attributed these shifts to "big picture" factors, noting that President Trump's approval and disapproval ratings stand at 40.1 percent and 56.7 percent, respectively, according to Decision Desk HQ.
21 Articles
21 Articles
Election handicapper shifts three Senate races toward Democrats – but GOP still favored to hold majority
A trio of midterm Senate races were shifted in favor of Democrats Thursday by a top election handicapper, but Republicans are still favored to maintain control of the upper chamber.
THREE Senate Races Move Toward Democrats! Shower These Candidates With Money!
Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola, screengrab from campaign adThe other day on Bluesky, we said this in response to the results in Maine, for any people who are not happy about what happened there:And we stand by that, because of course we do. Graham Platner needs to win there, because Susan Collins needs to lose. Period. (And if you’re happy about Platner, be happy!)But oh boy, big election forecasting news from Larry Sabato and his Crystal …
Handicapper Shifts Three Senate Race Towards Dems
The Hill reports: A top election handicapper shifted a trio of Senate races toward Democrats, as the minority party looks to regain control of the upper chamber this November. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics shifted the Alaska race from leans Republican to toss-up, the North Carolina race from toss-up to leans Democratic and the Ohio race from leans Republican to toss-up. The handicapper noted Trump’…
Major ranking moves NC's Senate race from 'toss up' to 'lean D'
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shifted the race for North Carolina’s open 2026 US Senate seat, currently held by Sen. Thom Tillis, who will not be running for re-election, from a toss-up race to lean Democrat. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is running on the Democratic ticket, while former Republican National Committee and NCGOP chairman Michael Whatley is running on the Republican ticket. According to the May 2026 Carolina Journal …
Alaska Beacon
Strong candidates in Alaska, Ohio seen as moving US Senate races toward Dems
An elections forecaster has moved three U.S. Senate races in the 2026 midterms in Democrats' favor, in Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina. (Getty Images)Democrats’ prospects in a trio of key U.S. Senate races are improving, an influential elections forecaster said Thursday, though Republicans are still favored to retain control of the chamber after the midterm elections. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which predicts election outcomes, moved three races — i…
Forecaster still considers Maine's US Senate race a toss up after Platner win • Maine Morning Star
Supporters of Graham Platner rallied in Blue Hill after the polls closed in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate on June 9, 2026. (Photo by Emma Davis/ Maine Morning Star)Democrats’ prospects in a trio of key U.S. Senate races are improving, an influential elections forecaster said Thursday, though Republicans are still favored to retain control of the chamber after the midterm elections. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which predicts election outcomes…
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