US EditionCOMMENT: Escalating Middle East Conflict Raises Risks of Renewed European Energy Shock
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz risk increasing fuel and food prices and triggering stagflation, with fertilizer supply critical during the current planting season, experts warn.
- On March 17, economists and investors say markets may underestimate how damaging the Iran war could be, as oil-market volatility surges with Brent swinging widely.
- The Strait of Hormuz serves as a key chokepoint handling about a fifth of world oil, while natural gas and fertiliser supplies tied to the region deepen food and fuel risks.
- Market prices already signal risk: oil at $100 could lower Eurozone GDP by 0.3%, while a $10 increase may raise inflation; gas at TTF rose to �51.2MWh.
- A prolonged conflict could produce stagflation across the Gulf region, Europe, and East Asia, while higher defense spending of $1–$2 billion a day would strain budgets and central banks may delay rate cuts amid rising energy costs.
- Global shipping companies could begin reassessing risks in the Persian Gulf as repairing infrastructure and energy capacity may take months, while European governments may respond faster, economists warn.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Iran war pushes countries into energy triage as they conserve power and curb soaring prices - Boston News, Weather, Sports
BANGKOK (AP) — The escalating war with Iran is pushing parts of the world into energy triage, forcing governments to choose where to cut demand or absorb costs, while prioritizing dwindling supplies. Asia is the most exposed since it relies heavily on imported fuel, much of it shipped through the now-blockedStrait of Hormuz. The narrow passage offshore from Iran is the main route for shipping a fifth of global trade in crude oil and liquified na…
COMMENT: Escalating Middle East conflict raises risks of renewed European energy shock
After US President Donald Trump failed to deliver on his promise of a quick end to the conflict in Iran, the chances of a renewed European energy shock are rising quickly, says Oxford Economics.
The Economic Consequences of the Iran War
Keynes famously said “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” If ever the US economic facts have changed, it has to be with the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Those changes now raise the risk of an economic recession, a rise in inflation, a sharp stock market correction, and heightened credit market strains. Those risks should prompt a rethinking of the Trump administration’s import tariff policy and a backing o…
The Iran war could trigger deeper economic fallout than markets expect
Beyond the battlefield, the Iran war is exposing fragile economic chokepoints from energy routes to fertilisers and industrial gases, raising concerns among economists that supply disruptions could shape global prices and trade long after the conflict ends.
Reuters Since the start of the strikes in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, the price of gas has risen by 45%. An increase that revives the spectre of an explosion of invoices for Belgian households. When asked about this risk, Mathieu Bihet nevertheless calls for a relativization: "There is clearly a tension on the markets, but we are far from the peaks of 2022." Read also "It counts in days": Belgian gas stocks are already empty, s…
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