US EditionPublished • loading... • Updated
The First Predictions for Hurricane Season Are in and El Niño’s Fingerprints Are All over It
- On Thursday, Colorado State University researchers released their first 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, forecasting 13 named storms with six becoming hurricanes and two reaching Category 3 status or stronger.
- The forecast hinges on the expected transition to a strong El Niño climate pattern, which typically increases wind shear and inhibits storm formation, placing predictions below the 30-year average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
- Despite the El Niño forecast, researchers noted mixed ocean temperature signals; western Atlantic waters are warmer than average, yet cooler temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic may limit storm development.
- Utilizing the Ai2 Climate Emulator machine learning model, the report projects the season will be about 75% as active as the 1991–2020 average, with experts identifying El Niño as the "dominant factor."
- Meteorologists will refine these predictions in additional outlooks throughout June, July, and August before the official Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
Insights by Ground AI
17 Articles
17 Articles
Ask the Meteorologist: How will El Niño conditions affect tropical activity?
A shift to an El Niño pattern will likely have the biggest impact on how much tropical activity we have this season. Let's dive into the forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) and break down how El Niño will affect the tropics.
·Raleigh, United States
Read Full Article
A below-normal 2026 hurricane season is predicted as El Niño looms
FPREN | By Andrew Wulfeck The first outlook from Colorado State University for the 2026 hurricane season suggests that the Atlantic basin could be in store for below-average activity, with 13 named storms, six of which are expected to become hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane status. Forecasters expect the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to provide major clues as to which basins around the world will be active and which ones …
Coverage Details
Total News Sources17
Leaning Left5Leaning Right1Center10Last UpdatedBias Distribution63% Center
Bias Distribution
- 63% of the sources are Center
63% Center
L 31%
C 63%
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
