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Democrat James Talarico Projected to Win Texas Senate Race, Flipping Seat After 33 Years

Decision Desk HQ says Talarico’s win would cap a costly race shaped by Paxton scandals and more than $239 million in Republican-aligned outside spending.

  • Democrat James Talarico is projected to win the Texas Senate race, according to Decision Desk, marking a political earthquake in the second-most populous state after years of Republican domination.
  • Republican-Aligned outside groups spent about $239 million opposing Talarico, including roughly $200 million from billionaire Elon Musk and nearly $149 million through Texas PAC established by the Senate Leadership Fund.
  • While Talarico focused on affordability, wages, and the Iran war, Paxton campaigned by questioning his opponent's masculinity, a strategy Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan warned was failing to move polls.
  • Right-Wing activists faced humiliation after falsely claiming Talarico was in an Ohio mental health facility, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee took out $20 million in loans despite cash advantages.
  • Paxton has already assumed he lost, telling donors that Washington took over his campaign and he has no say in what happens anymore; this contest became the most expensive Senate race in history.
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Detroit Free Press broke the news in Detroit, United States on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
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