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Talarico Leads Paxton by 3 Points in Texas Senate Race Post-Runoff Poll
The poll found Talarico ahead 47% to 44%, with moderates and independents backing him and 30% of Cornyn runoff voters crossing over.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted May 27–28 shows Democratic Rep. James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 44% in the Texas Senate race, a margin within the poll's error range.
Paxton's standing follows years of legal challenges, including a 2015 indictment for securities fraud and his 2023 Texas House impeachment, though the Texas Senate later acquitted him and courts dismissed his case in March 2024.
Among GOP runoff voters planning to back Talarico, 51% cite Paxton's criminality or corruption as their primary motivation, while Talarico draws strong support from moderates and independents across the state.
Talarico aims to become the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate seat since Bob Krueger in 1993, as Texans view him more favorably than Paxton, who holds a 38% favorability rating.
Affordability ranks as the top issue for voters, with 23% citing it as their primary concern, while 11% prioritize democracy and voting rights as the general election approaches in November.