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Talarico leads Cornyn, Paxton in Texas Senate race, new poll shows

The poll of 1,018 likely general election voters found Talarico ahead by 3 points over Cornyn and 5 points over Paxton, within the margin of error.

  • On Tuesday, a new Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Democratic nominee State Representative James Talarico leading both Republican primary runoff candidates, Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, in head-to-head matchups.
  • Cornyn and Paxton are competing in a May 26 runoff to determine the Republican nominee, with the winner set to face Talarico in the November 2026 General Election. The ongoing primary battle has consumed resources and attention.
  • The poll shows Talarico leading Cornyn 44% to 41% and outperforming Paxton 46% to 41%, with strong support among Black voters , Latino voters , and college-educated voters.
  • While Talarico leads in the survey, results fall within the 3.3% margin of error, suggesting a competitive general election ahead. The poll surveyed 1,018 likely general election voters.
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tpr.org broke the news on Tuesday, April 28, 2026.
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