DC National Guard surge didn’t reduce violent crime: Research
Researchers said the deployment reduced opportunistic theft in public spaces, while violent crime in high-poverty neighborhoods remained largely unchanged.
- On Tuesday, a Niskanen Center study found the National Guard's deployment in the District since last August coincided with an about 24% drop in overall crime, though researchers noted most reductions involved opportunistic property offenses rather than violent crime.
- The National Guard was stationed primarily in high-visibility public spaces, exactly where opportunistic property crime occurs and visible deterrence is most effective, rather than in high-poverty neighborhoods where violent crime remains concentrated.
- Before the National Guard arrived, District police increased narcotics arrests by 150% and traffic stops by 100% between 2022 and 2025; the Niskanen Center report notes daily Guard costs are nearly twice those of a police officer.
- Preventing violent crime in Congress Heights, a high-poverty neighborhood in the District's Southeast quadrant, yields greater social benefits than deterring vehicle thefts near Union Station and the Capitol, according to the report.
- President Donald Trump announced plans to double the National Guard presence in the District ahead of America's 250th birthday celebration, a move that contrasts with the study's findings on the Guard's limited violent-crime impact.
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14 Articles
The Independent
The Independent (US)National Guard deployment had ‘no measurable effect on violent crime’ in DC: study
President Trump has frequently credited the National Guard operation with ‘solving’ crime in Washington, even though the evidence is far more nuanced
Because of the jubilee celebrations, an additional 1,500 soldiers are to be deployed in Washington. However, it seems to help only partially for security.
National Guard Surge Didn't Deter Violent Crime In DC
Axios reports: D.C.’s National Guard surge didn’t deter violent crime, a new report says, despite coming at a steep cost for taxpayers. Ahead of America’s 250th birthday events, President Trump plans to double the deployment — currently costing $1.5 million a day — to 5,000 troops. The big picture: Researchers at the Niskanen Center found last August’s deployment led to a 24% decline in “opportunistic” property crimes. Auto thefts, for example, …
Army Times
National Guard’s DC deployment has had no ‘measurable effect’ on violent crime: Report
The presence of more than 2,000 National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., since Aug. 2025 has had “no measurable effect on violent crime,” according to a new report by the Niskanen Center.The researchers described the deployment as “an expensive tool” used in “the wrong places for the wrong types of crime.” They cited the $607 average daily cost per Guard member in the nation’s capital, compared with $384 in pay for Metropolitan Police Departme…
DC National Guard surge didn't reduce violent crime: Research
The nearly 10-month presence of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C., has not helped reduce violent crime in the nation’s capital, according to a new study from the Niskanen Center, a Washington policy shop.
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- 64% of the sources are Center
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