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Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Ohio governor race toward Acton after Ramaswamy attack ad

The forecaster said Amy Acton’s polling lead and a $4 million attack ad campaign have made her the favorite, though the race remains competitive.

  • Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Ohio governor race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic" following a controversial attack ad released by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton.
  • Ramaswamy's campaign spent $4 million on a spot featuring Donna Arthur, Acton's estranged mother, who disputed the former health director's account of being removed from custody at 12 due to abuse.
  • The Nate Silver average placed Acton ahead by roughly 4.7 points as of Wednesday, while a Marist Poll conducted October 15 to 18 shows her leading 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.
  • Sabato's Crystal Ball noted the developing fallout "may ultimately hurt" Ramaswamy, as the ad sparked bipartisan criticism and warnings that Ohio polling has previously underestimated Republicans.
  • Acton led independents by 53 percent to 34 percent, and a Fox News poll released Wednesday night showed her ahead by 2 points among likely voters.
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Political Wire broke the news in New York, United States on Thursday, October 22, 2026.
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