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Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Ohio governor race toward Acton after Ramaswamy attack ad
The forecaster said Amy Acton’s polling lead and a $4 million attack ad campaign have made her the favorite, though the race remains competitive.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the Ohio governor race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic" following a controversial attack ad released by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton.
Ramaswamy's campaign spent $4 million on a spot featuring Donna Arthur, Acton's estranged mother, who disputed the former health director's account of being removed from custody at 12 due to abuse.
The Nate Silver average placed Acton ahead by roughly 4.7 points as of Wednesday, while a Marist Poll conducted October 15 to 18 shows her leading 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.
Sabato's Crystal Ball noted the developing fallout "may ultimately hurt" Ramaswamy, as the ad sparked bipartisan criticism and warnings that Ohio polling has previously underestimated Republicans.
Acton led independents by 53 percent to 34 percent, and a Fox News poll released Wednesday night showed her ahead by 2 points among likely voters.