Recession risks are fading, business economists say, but political tensions pose threat to economy
- Just 25% of business economists and analysts predict a US recession this year, which would likely be triggered by an external event, such as a conflict involving China, rather than domestic economic factors like higher interest rates.
- Concerns are growing about potential political tensions, such as a conflict between China and Taiwan, with 63% of respondents viewing it as a "moderate probability."
- Respondents in a survey by the National Association of Business Economics expect inflation to exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target through 2024.
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