Putin’s ‘Battlefield Fiction’ Could Take Russia Until 2032 to Seize Donetsk, ISW Says
ISW says Russian commanders’ inflated battlefield claims are helping Putin believe the region can still be seized by the end of 2026.
- The Institute for the Study of War calculated on September 6 that Russia would need until October 2, 2032, to seize the remaining 19% of the Donetsk region at its current advance rate of 2.36 square kilometers per day.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin remains confident his forces can capture the entire region by the end of 2026, despite missing at least 15 previous deadlines; ISW attributes this belief to systematic misreporting by military commanders.
- Future operations require capturing remaining Fortress Belt cities, including Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka; troops have spent 11 months fighting for Kostiantynivka without securing the city.
- During a Saturday meeting with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Putin claimed "significant advances," though ISW assessed these assertions as exaggerated and inconsistent with battlefield realities in the Donetsk region.
- ISW concluded that Russian forces cannot capture all three major cities within the four months remaining in 2026, making the Kremlin's stated end-of-year objective for Donetsk Oblast impossible to achieve.
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Despite the positive words, the talks with Putin did not result in a breakthrough. The Russian leader intends to continue the war – and the goals will be achieved. His view of the situation is “detached from reality,” writes the think tank ISW in an analysis.
Question gained new importance during Putin's meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held on Saturday in Moscow
Vladimir Putin bases his messages about the war in Ukraine on an image of the situation on the front that ISW experts consider to be broken by reality. The American Institute claims that the Kremlin leader uses these claims to strengthen his position in the peace negotiations.
Putin’s 2026 Donetsk Goal Is Six Years Away at Russia’s Current Pace, ISW Says
Russian forces would need more than six additional years to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in the Donetsk region if their current rate of advance continues, putting the potential timeline well beyond Moscow’s stated goal of taking the entire region by the end of 2026.
Venemaa dictator Vladimir Putin on andnud oma vägedele käsu vallutada kogu Donbass 2026. aasta lõpuks, kuid tema nägemus lahinguvälja loudest on jätkuvalt kaugel Ukraina kaitsevõimekusereaalsusest, teatas esmaspäeval USA mõttekoda Sõjauuringute Instituut (ISW).
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