Think You Know Who’s Going to Win the World Cup? So Does Goldman Sachs

Think you know who’s going to win the World Cup? So does Goldman Sachs

Betting sites and prediction markets have led the way in oddsmaking for events like the World Cup. Goldman Sachs has even thrown its hat into the ring.

Prediction markets update World Cup odds for every group

With 2026 World Cup group stage soon to get underway, prediction markets have settled into a clear hierarchy across all 12 groups. Eight nations now sit as dominant favorites to top their group at roughly two-thirds odds or better, led by Spain, who command the steepest price of the tournament. Elsewhere the picture is far messier — one group is locked in a statistical tie, another has seen its long-time favorite collapse, and a host nation is s…

Goldman’s World Cup model tests the limits of prediction

Goldman Sachs has turned the World Cup into a forecasting problem. The more interesting question is not whether the bank can pick the winner, but what its model says about the limits of confidence when finance-style analysis is applied to sport. The bank’s latest report, led by chief economist and head of Global Investment Research Jan Hatzius, gives Spain the strongest chance of winning the tournament at 26%. France follows at 19%, with Argenti…