US EditionPolymarket and Traders Clash over U.S. Raid on Venezuela
Polymarket tied up $10.7 million in bets after ruling a U.S. raid capturing Maduro did not meet its 'invasion' criteria, raising insider trading and governance concerns.
- On Saturday, Polymarket declined to settle bets on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela after Maduro’s capture, leaving $10.7 million tied up.
- Under its rules, Polymarket required a U.S. offensive to establish territorial control by one of the three specified dates, and said President Donald Trump’s remarks did not meet the invasion threshold.
- An anonymous account created days before the raid placed highly profitable wagers, reportedly earning over $400,000 b, while market prices collapsed below 5% after Polymarket withheld settlement.
- Online fury and trader accusations have pushed calls for oversight into the legislative arena, with Congressman Ritchie Torres planning legislation this week to bar insiders from trading on sensitive events.
- The episode raises fresh questions about governance in largely unregulated prediction markets, reigniting concerns over transparency and regulatory risks for Polymarket, which recently gained U.S. approval to operate, while Sonar Pro flagged a possible geopolitical insider.
13 Articles
13 Articles
The US intervention in Venezuela has just begun in 2026, a historic event. For many, unexpected; for some, suspiciously predictable. And for those who tried to profit through gambling, fortune has not always been on their side.Keep reading...
Polymarket refuses to pay $10.5 million in Venezuela "invasion" bets
Polymarket is refusing to settle approximately $10.5 million in bets on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela, arguing that the military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro doesn't count as an "invasion." According to the Financial Times, the prediction market claims the contract specifically required "US military operations intended to establish control" over Venezuelan territory, and a "snatch-and-extract" mission followed by diplomatic enga…
The American betting site Polymarket refused to recognize the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro with the American invasion of Venezuela and did not pay out millions of dollars to players who made the corresponding bet.
Polymarket Traders Fume As Prediction Platform Refuses To Settle Bets Worth Over $10 Million On US Invasion Of Venezuela— 'You Cannot Change Rules…'
Prediction platform Polymarket is facing backlash after refusing to settle contracts betting on whether the U.S. would “invade” Venezuela, following a special forces operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday. Bets worth around $10.7 million are currently tied up in the disputed contracts, leaving bettors furious and reigniting questions around transparency and governance in the largely unregulated predicti…
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