US EditionPlaid's Rhun ap Iorwerth on course to be First Minister in major new Welsh political poll
A YouGov/Cardiff University poll of 2,500 adults shows Plaid Cymru leading with 33%, Reform UK at 30%, and Labour dropping to 10% ahead of May's Senedd election.
- On Wednesday, the YouGov / Cardiff University poll showed Plaid Cymru leading at 33% with Reform UK close behind on 30%, while Welsh Labour and the Conservative Party each had 10%.
- Analysts say Welsh-identifying progressive voters consolidate behind Plaid Cymru while British-identifying conservative voters shift to Reform UK, with real-world results like the Caerphilly by-election reinforcing this trend.
- The YouGov / Cardiff University poll surveyed 2,500 adults in Wales online between November 28 and December 10 and projects Plaid Cymru winning 39 seats, Reform UK 34, and Labour 10.
- If trends hold, Welsh Labour would finish a distant third and face opposition for the first time in a century, while Rhun ap Iorwerth, Leader of Plaid Cymru, is on track to be First Minister of Wales.
- Plaid urged voters ahead of May 7, 2026, saying momentum after the Caerphilly by-election makes the choice clear, while opponents warned Reform UK is 'billionaire-backed' and could privatise the NHS.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Plaid Cymru could lead the Welsh government for the first time after the Senedd elections in May 2026. This is indicated by a new YouGov poll commissioned by Cardiff University, which places the Welsh independence party as the first force with 33% of voting intention, in a close tie with Reform UK, which would obtain 30%. The survey draws an unprecedented situation in Welsh politics. The Labour Party, which has governed Wales uninterruptedly thr…
Plaid storms ahead as Labour vote collapses in Wales
A YouGov/Cardiff University survey of 2,500 adults across Wales shows Plaid on course to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since devolution began in 1999. Reform UK trails narrowly on 30%, while Labour and the Conservatives are tied on 10% each. The Greens rise to 9% and the Liberal Democrats to 6%. Under the new proportional voting system debuting in May 2026, Plaid would secure 39 seats, Reform 34, Labour 10, Conservati…
New YouGov Senedd election poll predicts Plaid Cymru largest party with Reform UK in close second place
A new poll has been released as the next Senedd election looms, showing the following voter intent: Plaid Cymru: 33% Reform: 30% Labour: 10% Conservative: 10% Green: 9% Liberal Democrats: 6% Other: 2% Cardiff Uni said of the YouGov poll they commissioned, “Between 28th November and 10th December we surveyed approximately 2,500 adults in Wales […]
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Bias Distribution
- 67% of the sources lean Left
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