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Paxton vs. Talarico: Five things to watch in Texas’ tight U.S. Senate race

  • On Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Democrat and State Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race with a 6-to-7-point advantage in final polls.
  • Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, but Talarico has campaigned as an economic populist against Paxton, marking a historic shift for the party in the state.
  • A New York Times/Siena College poll of 5,708 likely voters shows 50 percent backing Talarico to 43 percent for Paxton, while Talarico proposes banning corporate PACs and Paxton advocates a $50,000 home purchase tax deduction.
  • Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and control the Senate, making this Texas race critical; a Talarico victory secures one seat while Paxton winning preserves the Republican majority.
  • With more than 7.6 million early ballots cast, exceeding 94 percent of 2022 turnout, Senator Ted Cruz warned last week that "Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America.
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FWRD AXIS broke the news on Monday, November 2, 2026.
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