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OPEC+ Nears Its Limit, Leaving Prices One Crisis Away From a Spike

OPEC+ raises output cautiously as spare capacity shrinks to about 4 million barrels per day, risking supply shocks despite expected market surplus next year.

  • This past week, OPEC+ agreed to a modest production increase, with a smaller-than-expected hike of 137,000 barrels per day for November.
  • Unwinding cuts, OPEC+ tapped the 1.65 million-bpd layer of reductions to help Saudi Arabia regain market share and score political points with the White House.
  • Analysts note actual output may be smaller than headline hikes as the IEA estimates total OPEC+ spare capacity at 4.05 million bpd, including 2.43 million in Saudi Arabia, 850,000 in the UAE and 320,000 in Iraq.
  • Market reaction was mixed, with the modest hike seen as easing short-term glut fears, but analysts warned the boost could contribute to a likely global surplus next year.
  • Looking ahead, thinning buffers leave the market exposed to shocks as OPEC+ unwinds cuts and the global oil buffer shrinks, while attacks on Russia’s network could soon dent supplies.
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12 Articles

Oil prices are rising, influenced by the weekend decision of the OPEC+ group to increase oil production to a smaller extent than expected from next month. However, concerns about the supply overhang are holding back the price growth, according to analysts. The OPEC+ group includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia. The price of North Sea Brent oil increased by 1.4 percent at around 17:15 our time…

·Bratislava Region, Slovakia
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Semafor broke the news in New York, United States on Tuesday, October 7, 2025.
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