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Nexus Poll Has Flávio 50.5%, Lula 49.5%

The 2.2-point margin puts the race in a technical tie as undecided and blank votes could still sway the runoff.

Summary by The Rio Times
A BTG/Nexus poll released 24 October has Flávio Bolsonaro at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5% of valid votes, a technical tie one day before Brazil's runoff.

4 Articles

Lean Right

Brazil, South America's largest economy, will make its final decision in the presidential runoff election held on the 25th (local time) regarding whether to grant the "godfather of the left," President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, an unprecedented fourth term, or to choose right-wing challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to bring about a change of government. Candidate Bolsonaro, considered an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, seized the initiati…

Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.5% of the valid votes and Lula has 49.5% in the second round, according to the BTG-Nexus poll released on Saturday (24/10), the eve of the election. The difference of one percentage point is within the margin of error of two points, for more or less. The survey heard by phone 2,000 voters aged 16 [...]

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Bias Distribution

  • 67% of the sources lean Right
67% Right

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The Rio Times broke the news on Saturday, October 24, 2026.
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