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Newfoundland and Labrador to lead economic growth in 2026, Ontario to lag: report
Signal49 Research says higher crude prices and offshore oil projects will lift the province to 3.7% growth, while Ontario is forecast at 0.2%.
On Thursday, Signal49 Research projected that Newfoundland and Labrador will lead Canada's economic growth for a second consecutive year in 2026, with the province's economy expected to expand 3.7 per cent.
Higher crude prices and offshore oil projects drive the province's current expansion. However, lead economist Richard Forbes warned that longer-term growth faces headwinds from an aging population and difficulty attracting migrants.
Expanding just 0.2 per cent, Ontario will post the softest provincial growth this year. Forbes noted the auto sector has been "continually targeted since early 2025" with almost 100 per cent of Canadian auto production located in Ontario.
Alberta's economy is projected to grow 1.5 per cent in 2026, supported by resource and artificial intelligence sectors. British Columbia is forecasted to grow 1.4 per cent, aided by LNG developments and strong trade prospects with Asia.
Ongoing tariff uncertainty and the Middle East conflict remain significant risks to national growth. Forbes cautioned, "The longer it gets drawn out, the more it escalates, the worse the outlook is going to be for Canada.