US EditionNew Study Finds Sea Levels Far Higher Than Assumed, Raising Flood Risk for Millions
A study reviewing 385 papers found 90% underestimated coastal sea levels by 24–30 cm, increasing the land and populations at risk by up to 37% and 132 million people, respectively.
- Using a review of 385 peer‑reviewed studies, researchers reported Wednesday in Nature that over 90% underestimated baseline coastal water heights by roughly 24–27 cm, according to authors.
- Geoids, not local measurements, produced large errors because many studies used unadjusted geoids instead of tide gauges and satellite observations, authors said.
- Using the revised baseline, the study estimates a 1 metre rise could flood 37% more land and add 77 million to 132 million people exposed by 2100.
- Planners face potential mistiming and underfunding of adaptation as governments and planners may use an incomplete picture of ocean change, while Seeger and Minderhoud released open‑source coastal sea‑level datasets and urged reassessments.
- Because impacts cluster in Southeast Asia and the Pacific, researchers call for more tide gauges and local measurements, as the study raises low‑elevation coastal population estimates from about 80 million to between 97 million and 107 million people.
129 Articles
129 Articles
An analysis of 385 studies shows that the world has measured sea levels wrongly for decades – with dramatic consequences for global coastal protection.
The sea is higher than we think: Millions more at risk of rising sea levels, researchers say
Rising sea levels due to climate change may threaten tens of millions more people than previously thought, according to a new report. Writing in the journal Nature, researchers say that 90 percent of scientific studies use erroneous data when calculating the height of baseline coastal waters.
New measurements show that the sea level is higher than expected. More people are threatened by its rise.
With an increase of one metre, up to 132 million people could already be affected. Globally, the current sea level has been systematically underestimated, Dutch researchers have found.
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