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Global Airlines Slash 2026 Profit Forecast on Fuel Shock From Iran War
IATA said the industry’s fuel bill will rise to $350 billion in 2026, while profit per passenger is expected to fall to about $4.50.
On Sunday, Jun 7, The International Air Transport Association halved its 2026 profit forecast to $23 billion, citing Middle East conflict that disrupted key air corridors and drove up fuel costs.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh attributed the downgrade to surging jet fuel prices, expected to reach $350 billion in 2026, and severe operational disruptions across the Gulf region.
Gulf carriers Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways face significant operational uncertainty, while Spirit Airlines shut down last month as the first casualty of the Iran war.
Profitability per passenger has eroded to about $4.50, roughly half last year's level, while Walsh warned that fares will likely remain elevated as airlines cut unprofitable routes.
Delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus are forcing airlines to retain older, less efficient aircraft, though IATA still projects industry revenues to rise to around $1.16 trillion this year.