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Michigan Senate race shifts to ‘lean Democrat’ in final Cook Political Report rating

Cook cited new polling showing Democratic voters coalescing behind Abdul El-Sayed, making a Senate majority more likely for Democrats.

  • The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Michigan Senate race from 'toss-up' to 'Lean Democrat,' reflecting new public and private polling data in the contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.
  • Analyst Jessica Taylor noted that Democratic base voters, including Black voters, have coalesced behind El-Sayed in the campaign's final stretch, driving the rating change.
  • Haley Stevens made a cross-party endorsement on Sunday backing Rogers, though Taylor dismissed the move as a 'decision to revisit the bitter primary as primarily noise this late in the race.'
  • The rating change suggests Democrats are now more likely to win a Senate majority than Republicans are to retain control, an assessment that remains firm despite the endorsement controversy.
  • El-Sayed campaigned in Ypsilanti on Monday, attempting to win over Republican voters while sharing a closing message via an op-ed on the Fox News website.
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Real Clear Politics broke the news in Northbrook, United States on Monday, November 2, 2026.
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