US EditionLawmakers Push to Ban Government Officials From Prediction Markets After Bets on Iran Strike, Khamenei's Death
The bill targets trading by top federal officials on event contracts amid insider trading risks, with fines starting at $10,000 to address surges in wagers on geopolitical events.
- On Thursday, Senators Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator and Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to bar the president, vice president and members of Congress from trading event contracts.
- Users on Kalshi placed about $54,000,000 in wagers that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "out" by March or April 1, but Kalshi froze trades after his Feb. 28 death, barring transactions "directly tied to death."
- An anonymous Polymarket user made more than $400,000 predicting a U.S. invasion of Venezuela, while an intelligence firm found six suspected insiders made $1.2 million betting on a U.S. strike on Iran.
- It would also limit prediction market activity for senior executive branch officials and impose fines starting at $10,000, but the bill faces hurdles in the Republican-controlled Congress.
- Kalshi, prediction market platform, says it supports federal regulation and consulted policymakers, while Gambling Is Not Investing led by Mick Mulvaney pushes tighter state rules amid surging platform popularity in recent months.
11 Articles
11 Articles
Lawmakers push to ban government officials from prediction markets after bets on Iran strike, Khamenei's death
Senators are calling for new legislation after millions of dollars in bets were placed on prediction market sites tied to U.S. air strikes on Iran and the death of the country's supreme leader.Users on a prediction market site called Kalshi placed bets predicting that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be "out" by March or April 1. Those bets reached about $54 million, and when Khamenei was killed on Feb. 28, many users expected …
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