Market Outlook: Global Oil Surplus Projected to Hit Record Levels by 2026, Says IEA

Market Outlook: Global oil surplus projected to hit record levels by 2026, says IEA

IEA forecasts record oil surplus for 2026, raising concerns over oversupply and falling prices as analysts expect OPEC+ to step in before markets weaken.

Oil’s Five-Month Slide and the Surplus Story: What Backwardation and Contango Are Signaling Now

Whether the weakness persists will show up first in structure and stocks: if spreads settle into contango alongside continued builds, the surplus is physically real and durable; if spreads snap back to backwardation as maintenance ends and cargoes clear, the surplus was uneven and transitory. Oil prices sit near five-month lows after the International Energy Agency (IEA) flagged a large surplus emerging into 2026. Brent has hovered in the low $6…