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Rove: Democrats’ polling advantage might not result in blue wave in midterms

Rove said Democrats’ narrow polling edge is within the margin of error and has slipped from a seven-point lead in January to one point in May.

  • On Thursday, veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove appeared on Fox News with host Bill Hemmer to analyze new Marquette Law School polling data suggesting a predicted 'blue wave' may not materialize in November's midterm elections.
  • Data reveals the Democratic advantage dropped from four points in April to 49-48%, while Republican voter enthusiasm has surged to 59 percent, outpacing Democratic certainty at 58 percent.
  • Rove argued Democrats need at least a five or six point ballot advantage to take the House with significant margin, noting even GOP-held seats in 'highly conservative rural America' are not as Republican as urban Democratic-held seats.
  • Republicans currently hold razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate, with simple majority requiring 216 votes and current balance at 218 to 212 in the chamber.
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The IndependentThe Independent
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The Independent (US)The Independent (US)
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Top political strategist goes old school to show why a ‘blue wave’ in isn’t a given

‘Remember, this is a contest between two unfavorables,’ Karl Rove told Fox News

·London, United Kingdom
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Mediaite broke the news in New York, United States on Thursday, June 4, 2026.
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