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Iran war threatens Healey's Budget plans, think tank warns

The think tank said higher inflation and defence pledges could force Healey to choose between tax rises, welfare cuts or extra spending.

  • Chancellor John Healey faces a £36 billion funding gap, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned on Tuesday, driven by rearmament plans and higher inflation from the Iran war necessitating significant tax increases or benefit cuts.
  • Higher inflation linked to the Iran war has increased government borrowing costs by around £10 billion, shrinking fiscal headroom to approximately £20 billion from a previous £24 billion forecast in March.
  • Increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 requires an additional £11 billion; IFS Director Helen Miller warned that avoiding service cuts forces a choice to "tolerate chunky cuts" to public services.
  • Prime Minister Andy Burnham rejected calls to fund services by slashing welfare, telling the Rest Is Politics podcast it is "a mistake to put those two as one," while the Treasury declined to comment on speculation.
  • Miller stressed the Chancellor must set spending envelopes he is "genuinely prepared to live within"; pencilling in unrealistic future cuts would "make the Budget a work of fiction," undermining credibility with investors.
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A warning over the upcoming Budget and coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war lead Monday's papers. Source link:

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City AM broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Sunday, October 11, 2026.
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