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Intel Cut Chip Capacity At The Worst Possible Time — And Its Stock Paid The Price

Intel faces supply shortfalls due to yield and capacity issues while demand from major AI clients like OpenAI and AWS surges, causing stock to drop nearly 20% after Q4 results.

  • Following its Q4 results, Intel's stock tumbled after the chipmaker beat Q4 estimates but gave weak Q1 guidance and warned of "acute internal supply constraints".
  • After months of cutting capacity on older production lines, Intel was unprepared for a surge of orders from OpenAI, Amazon Web Services and Google.
  • KeyBanc estimates yields in the 65% to 75% range, and Zinsner said, `Our biggest challenge in the near term is we can’t meet all the demand that our customers are giving us`.
  • Holding major contracts including a $15 billion Microsoft deal, a multibillion AWS agreement, and a $3 billion U.S. government contract, Intel’s Foundry unit faces $10.3 billion losses in 2025.
  • Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon warned Intel faces a decade of struggle with a $21 target; TipRanks averages $48.11, and JoAnne Feeney said Jan. 23 customers need proven manufacturing.
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Intel reduced its loss of billions to $267 million in the 2025 financial year, but sales stagnated at just under $53 billion. At the same time, supply shortages dampen the outlook for the coming quarter.

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TFD broke the news in on Monday, January 26, 2026.
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