US EditionGlobal oil surplus could stretch into 2026 on higher OPEC+ output, softening demand, IEA says
IEA forecasts global oil supply could exceed demand by about 4 million barrels per day in 2026 due to rising output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers amid slow demand growth.
- On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency warned global supply may exceed demand by about 4 million bpd next year as supply rises faster than demand.
- OPEC+ will increase output by 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1.2 million bpd in 2026, while non-OPEC+ producers led by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana add 1.6 million bpd in 2025 and 1.2 million bpd in 2026.
- Inventory data show seaborne oil in September rose by 102000000 barrels, equivalent to 3.4 million bpd, with global supply up by 1.6 million barrels a day and OPEC+ contributing 3.1 million.
- Falling forecasts and extra supply are weighing on oil prices this year, as the IEA predicted demand will grow by 700,000 bpd while OPEC expects a 1.3 million bpd rise.
- With production set to rise to 106.1 million in 2025 and 108.5 million in 2026, the IEA predicted annual demand gains around 700,000 barrels per day, reflecting a slower growth outlook.
18 Articles
18 Articles
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oil market - Thoughtful Journalism About Energy's Future
This article was published by the International Energy Agency on Oct. 17, 2025. By Toril Bosoni, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division Oil surplus hits the water The global oil market may be at a tipping point as signs of a significant supply glut emerge. The overall oil surplus averaged 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from January through September 2025. Crude oil prices remained largely resilient, as stock builds were concentrated in …
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