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Gas Prices Unlikely to Fall Below $4 a Gallon Before Midterms, some Experts Say

AAA data show the national average at $4.27 a gallon, with analysts blaming Middle East unrest and Russia-Ukraine disruptions.

  • U.S. gas prices will likely remain above $4 a gallon through the midterms, with the national average at $4.27, reflecting a 43% increase since the Iran war began in February.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted oil supplies; the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy attacked four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia damaged energy infrastructure.
  • Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, told Money that ongoing supply constraints and high transport expenses are offsetting typical seasonal relief, keeping prices elevated.
  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects prices to gradually decline in coming months, potentially falling below $4 in December, though Gulf Coast refineries may see more substantial relief than Western states.
  • GasBuddy Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan remains cautious about year-end predictions, estimating prices around $4.11 by late December, as tight gasoline supplies could limit expected declines despite gradual recovery assumptions.
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Gas prices unlikely to fall below $4 a gallon before midterms, some experts say

A customer stands at a gas station on Oct. 17, 2026, near Fresno, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) High gas prices continue to weigh on wallets as voters list affordability as a top concern ahead of early November’s

·Baltimore, United States
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South Florida Reporter broke the news in The Villages, United States on Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
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