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NHC Tracking Tropical Wave Headed Toward Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center tracks a tropical wave that could become Hurricane Melissa, with potential impacts along the US Atlantic coast and Caribbean, as warm waters fuel rapid strengthening.

  • On October 17, 2025 the National Hurricane Center flagged two Atlantic areas, including a central tropical wave moving westward that may become named storm Melissa between October 21 and 25.
  • Warm ocean temperatures and a thinning season window increase the potential for late development as roughly 12% of the Atlantic hurricane season remains, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
  • Models diverge on track and intensity, with the American GFS leaning more northerly while Euro ensembles remain weaker and west; formation odds remain modest at 10% through 48 hours and 30% through seven days.
  • Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and coastal flooding could affect the Windward Islands as Ryan Maue warned interests from Jamaica to Puerto Rico to monitor this system closely, expected late this weekend and next week.
  • Later this year the Atlantic season continues through Nov. 30, and AccuWeather expects an active final stretch, while Michael Lowry wrote, `Only about a dozen hurricanes in the 175-year hurricane history books have struck the mainland U.S. after October 22nd, or about once every 15 years.
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  • 67% of the sources are Center
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Fox Weather broke the news in on Friday, October 17, 2025.
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