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Trump’s Promised Big Tax Cuts Are Expected to Disappoint the Average Worker

Tax policy changes including higher standard deductions and expanded child tax credits are projected to increase refunds by $91 billion in 2026, according to analysis.

  • Last week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the average American may notice a larger tax return next year, citing a Piper Sandler analysis projecting $91 billion in refunds plus $30 billion from reduced withholdings in 2026.
  • By design, the law provides a larger Child Tax Credit of $2,200, a permanent paid leave tax credit, and deductions removing tax on tips and overtime, while the IRS left older withholding rules in place.
  • Top earners and certain workers stand to gain, with those making between $376,000 and just below $960,000 gaining the largest average at $2,585, and workers collecting tips or overtime also benefiting.
  • Next year, most workers will realize their tax savings through a refund when they file early, months before the midterm elections, potentially creating a political liability for congressional Republicans after 92 million refunds last year.
  • Many filers may soon be disappointed as most taxpayers see only modest boosts while a higher standard deduction yields savings under a few hundred dollars, Adam Michel said.
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41 Articles

The ColumbianThe Columbian
+37 Reposted by 37 other sources
Center

Trump’s promised big tax cuts are expected to disappoint the average worker

President Donald Trump promised Americans big tax refunds next year. Many filers — particularly those who could most use the financial boost — may soon be disappointed. Read more...

·Vancouver, United States
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The Columbian broke the news in Vancouver, United States on Monday, December 15, 2025.
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