US EditionKevin vs. Kevin: Warsh Overtakes Hassett as Favorite to Be Fed Chair Nominee on Prediction Market
Kalshi traders raised Kevin Warsh’s odds to 42% as Trump’s likely Fed chair nominee, with $10.2 million traded amid concerns over Hassett’s close Trump ties.
- Published December 15, 2025, Kalshi traders showed Kevin Warsh overtook Kevin Hassett as the market frontrunner on Monday.
- After media reports and finance‑sector rumblings, Kevin Hassett fell to 41% amid pushback from people close to President Donald Trump, while the Wall Street Journal reported Trump met Kevin Warsh at the White House and Jamie Dimon signaled support for Warsh.
- Traders wagered real money on Kalshi, producing more than $10.2 million in trading volume, while Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve governor, joined the Fed Board in 2006 after a Morgan Stanley career.
- Christopher Waller's probability fell to 6% on Kalshi, and Wall Street reacted with surprise after The Wall Street Journal's report lifted Warsh's odds from the cellar.
- The nomination timing places President Donald Trump to choose a Fed chair in early 2026 as Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, ends his term in May, while bond investors warned the Treasury Department of concerns that Hassett might cut rates aggressively to please Trump.
13 Articles
13 Articles
Kevin vs. Kevin: Warsh overtakes Hassett as favorite to be Fed chair nominee on prediction market
Wall Street’s top parlor game took a sudden turn on Monday, when the prediction market Kalshi showed Kevin Warsh is now the frontrunner to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman, overtaking Kevin Hassett. Warsh, a former Fed governor, now has a 47% probability, up from 39% on Sunday and just 11% on Dec. 3. Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has fallen to 41%, down from 51% on Sunday and 81% on Dec. 3. A report from CN…
Trump Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett for Fed Chair: WSJ
President Donald Trump said that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are his top choices to lead the US Federal Reserve and that he expects the next chair of the central bank to consult with him on interest rates. He spoke in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday. Mike McKee reports on "Bloomberg Open Interest." (Source: Bloomberg)
The White House Economic Councillor Kevin Hassett would be meeting with many opposition in Donald Trump's entourage for a possible appointment as President of the Fed. (ANSA)
Prediction markets favor Hassett, Warsh as Trump’s top picks for Fed chair
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi place the odds of President Donald Trump selecting Kevin Warsh to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 42%, a 27 percentage point increase this week.Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner to lead the world’s most powerful central bank, holding a 50% chance despite a 20-point drop.The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little over $10.2 million.TRUMP…
Trump eyes Hassett, Warsh as finalists for Fed chair
US President Donald Trump confirmed that the head of his National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, is one of two finalists to be the next Federal Reserve chair, the other being Fed governor Kevin Warsh. Hassett is the favorite, but experts worry his economic policies are too far outside the mainstream, and that he would be excessively deferential to the White House, eroding the central bank’s independence. JPMorgan’s chief executive reportedly s…
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