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Energy prices expected to push inflation higher for May, economists say
Economists expect gas prices to lift headline inflation to 3% in May, while the Bank of Canada watches for broader spillover.
Statistics Canada is expected to report Monday that annual inflation rose to 3% in May, driven by higher gasoline prices, up from 2.8% in April when energy prices jumped 19.2% year-over-year.
The Bank, which maintains a 2% inflation target, held its policy interest rate at 2.25% earlier this month and vowed not to let higher energy prices become persistent inflation across the broader economy.
RBC economist Abbey Xu will scrutinize Monday's report for signs that energy costs are spreading to other categories, saying, "Our expectation is still that the uptick in headline inflation is still driven by limited categories."
Oil prices have recently fallen after the U.S. and Iran struck a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a shift TD Bank senior economist Andrew Hencic said may moderate future inflation pressures.
Economists are monitoring second-quarter data for signs of economic rebound after the first quarter contracted 0.1% annualized, while The Bank will release its next interest rate decision and forecasts on July 15.