Throttling Back: The Long and Short-Run Economic Effects of Continued Uncertainty

Throttling Back: The Long and Short-run Economic Effects of Continued Uncertainty

The first half of 2025 has been marked by broadening macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. How is this uncertainty likely to affect the U.S. economy over the coming months? And over the longer term? Mark Zandi joins EconoFact Chats to point out that while an immediate recession is unlikely, policies on tariffs, university and research funding, immigration, the budget, and efforts to influence monetary policy can have corrosive effects on l…

The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks

Political shocks impact the economy in different ways, depending of their nature. To capture these effects effectively, we present the Uncertainty Per…