US EditionSuspicious Polymarket Bets Netted $663K Before Iran Ceasefire
On-chain data shows the four wallets were funded the same day and entered hours before the announcement, a pattern analysts say suggests privileged access.
- On Tuesday at 19:45 GMT, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures, representing approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices.
- Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran at 22:30 GMT on Tuesday, stepping back from prior threats and knocking crude futures down 15% to below $100 a barrel at Wednesday's market open.
- A similar pattern occurred on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump delayed attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% crude price drop.
- Large orders are rarely executed after settlement, which occurs Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT; traders typically use algorithmic strategies to avoid impacting prices with outsized bets.
- Trading volumes have hit record highs above 1 million lots in recent weeks as volatility has exploded since the war began, complicating hedging and price discovery for market participants.
16 Articles
16 Articles
Although transactions of this type are not uncommon, they are very rarely carried out in large lots - Trading volume and volatility have skyrocketed since the start of the war
Traders place large $950 mil. bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire
LONDON — Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest large wager on the direction of the world's most traded commodity ahead of a major policy announcement by President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and U.S. crude futures at 1945 GMT, according to LSEG data. At around 2230 GMT on Tuesday, Trump stepped back…
Traders place large $950 million bet on oil price falling hours ahead of ceasefire
Investors placed an approximately $950 million bet on oil prices falling just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, the latest large wager on the direction of the world's most traded commodity ahead of a major policy announcement by President Donald Trump.
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