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Democrats lead Republicans on favorability, economy: Gallup

Democrats hold a 14-point edge on prosperity and a 43% to 35% favorability lead, Gallup found.

  • Polling analyst Nate Silver's latest 2026 FLIPR model gives Democrats a 74.8% chance of winning the Senate and a 93.1% chance of capturing the House in November.
  • American politics expert Mark Shanahan attributes the Democratic surge to President Donald Trump's unpopularity; while Trump is not on the ballot, he dominates debate and makes the election a referendum on his performance.
  • Republicans maintain a significant financial edge; super PACs directed more than $150 million to help Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton, while Democratic committees trail far behind in fundraising.
  • Winning both chambers would be a major victory for Democrats, significantly impeding President Trump's ability to pass legislation during the final two years of his second term.
  • Election forecasting remains a dangerous business, though history serves as a guide; Silver's model simulates the election at least 40,000 times to account for idiosyncratic factors not captured by fundamentals.
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Newsweek broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, October 9, 2026.
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