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Democrats lead Republicans in Texas battleground House districts, new poll shows

The survey found Democrats ahead in all three districts, with a 1,300-voter sample and a 4% margin of error.

  • A poll released Wednesday by Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Research and Survey Center shows Democrats leading in South Texas' 15th, 28th, and 34th congressional districts among 1,300 likely voters with a 4% margin of error.
  • Before the survey, Tejano singer-turned-politician Bobby Pulido, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa held a concert and rally in Beeville last Saturday to boost campaign visibility.
  • Pulido leads U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz by 5% in the 15th District. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar leads Tano Tijerina by 9% in the 28th, while U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leads Eric Flores by 3% in the 34th.
  • In statewide races, Talarico leads Republican opponent Ken Paxton by 8%, while Hinojosa leads GOP incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott 47% to 44%.
  • These results contrast sharply with 2024, when President Donald Trump won these districts by margins ranging from 10% to 18% and Sen. Ted Cruz held a 9% lead, marking significant potential shifts in Republican strongholds.
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The Hill broke the news in Washington, United States on Wednesday, August 26, 2026.
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