Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to win Alaska’s Senate race, as vote counting continues: NBC News
NBC News says Peltola has at least a 95% chance to flip the seat as she leads Sullivan by more than 10,000 votes.
- On Saturday, the NBC News Decision Desk characterized former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola as likely to win the Alaska Senate race, leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by over 10,000 votes.
- Alaska's vote counting continues following the November 13 deadline for mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, explaining why the close contest remains uncalled nearly a week after polls closed.
- Statistical analysis shows Sullivan faces a steep hurdle, requiring roughly 93% of redistributed votes to overcome the deficit, while ballot exhaustion limits the available pool as over 45% of voters ranked neither candidate.
- Alaska Division of Elections officials are scheduled to run the ranked-choice tabulation on November 18, which also serves as the final deadline for receiving absentee ballots.
- A victory for Peltola would secure a 56-44 Senate majority for Democrats next year, though the contest remains the final uncalled 2026 Senate race with the NBC News Decision Desk maintaining at least 95% confidence.
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Mary Peltola likely to unseat GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska: report
Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to unseat Republican Dan Sullivan in Alaska, NBC News’ Decision Desk said Saturday as ballot counting continued. A win would give Democrats a 56-44 Senate majority next year.NBC said it was at least 95% confident Peltola would flip the seat for Democrats. The network has yet to call the race, its last unresolved Senate contest of the midterms.“There is no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race,” Peltola’s…
The U.S. Democratic Party is increasingly likely to win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska, where the outcome remained undecided until the very end of the midterm elections. If the Democrats win this seat as well, they will secure 56 out of the 100 Senate seats in the new Congress convening next January. NBC reported on the 14th (local time)
Mary Peltola Is On Track to Win in Alaska
“As Alaska continues to count and report votes weeks after Election Day, it is increasingly unlikely that Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan will hang on to his job,” NBC News reports. “His Democratic challenger, Mary Peltola, is on track to win the still-unresolved Senate race under either possible scenario — with an outright majority, or […]
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- 43% of the sources lean Left, 43% of the sources are Center
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