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David Jolly Within Striking Distance of Byron Donalds: Florida Poll

The Mason-Dixon poll found 10% of voters still undecided in the governor’s race and 8% undecided in the Senate contest.

  • Republican candidate Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 7 points in Florida's gubernatorial race, while Republican Ashley Moody holds a 10-point advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon in the U.S. Senate contest, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released by NBC 6/Telemundo Station Group.
  • Conducted from September 28 to October 1, the survey polled 625 randomly selected likely Florida voters by telephone, using landlines and cell phones drawn from voter registration lists ahead of the November 3 general election.
  • Demographic breakdowns reveal Donalds holds strong support among men and white voters , while Jolly leads among women and Black voters ; Moody similarly leads Nixon among white voters , though Nixon commands strong support from Black voters .
  • Voters also weighed in on Amendment 3, with 55% planning to vote 'yes' on the homestead exemption measure, 26% opposed, and 19% remaining undecided on the constitutional change affecting property tax exemptions.
  • President Donald Trump's approval rating remains split at 48% to 48%, reflecting a competitive political landscape as inflation and the cost of living emerge as the top voting influence, followed by immigration enforcement as a significant factor for voters.
Insights by Ground AI

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A new NBC6/Telemundo and Mason-Dixon poll places Byron Donalds 48%-41% on David Jolly in Florida and shows Republicans also ahead among Hispanic voters.

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  • 40% of the sources lean Left, 40% of the sources lean Right
40% Right

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NBC Miami broke the news in Miramar, United States on Tuesday, October 6, 2026.
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