CMHC predicts weak housing market activity for rest of year in updated forecast
The agency cites trade uncertainty, high borrowing costs and weak condo demand as it forecasts 241,400 housing starts this year.
- On Wednesday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. downgraded its 2026 outlook, forecasting 457,200 home sales at an average price of $675,200, down from 470,314 sales and $679,543 in 2025.
- Geopolitical tensions, the U.S. trade war, and high construction costs are driving the market downturn, with a surplus of unsold condos in Toronto and Vancouver compounding challenges for builders.
- Housing starts are projected to reach 241,400 in 2026, down from 259,028 in 2025. "There is a very heightened level of uncertainty," Kevin Hughes, CMHC deputy chief economist, said.
- In response, Prime Minister Mark Carney's government funneled taxpayer funds to Ontario and British Columbia to help developers clear inventory and assist municipalities in cutting development fees.
- CMHC forecasts housing starts will fall 7.5 per cent to 223,400 units in 2027 and another 5 per cent to 211,900 units in 2028, signaling persistent construction headwinds ahead.
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17 Articles
CMHC predicting housing market slowdown
Slow economic growth is expected to slow housing starts and lower housing prices across Canada, says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in its latest update. “CMHC expects slow economic growth, weak housing demand, declining home prices, lower housing starts and easing rental markets in 2026,” says CMHC in its Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook released on Wednesday. CMHC is sticking to its Winter Housing Market Outlook of mo…
The Toronto Star
CMHC now sees home sales, prices declining in 2026 amid weaker market activity
OTTAWA - Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it now sees home sales and prices declining this year, a downgrade from its earlier forecast, before the market returns to modest
On Wednesday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reports that it is now expecting a decrease in sales and real estate prices this year, which represents a downward revision from its previous projections, before the market returns to moderate growth next year and in 2028.
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