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Classified US intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime: Washington Post

The National Intelligence Council report predicts Iran's leadership will maintain control despite U.S.-Israel military actions, citing established succession protocols and low opposition unity.

  • The Washington Post reported that the National Intelligence Council, representing 18 agencies, found even a large-scale U.S. assault would be unlikely to oust Iran's entrenched leadership in a classified report completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28.
  • The NIC concluded Iran's succession protocols would hold as Iran's clerical and military establishment would preserve continuity if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, while experts said a fragmented opposition is unlikely to seize control.
  • The assessment omitted some extreme options such as ground invasion and arming ethnic Kurds.
  • Experts say with Iran's institutions still in control, current and former U.S. officials see limited ability for Trump to influence political outcomes, despite his demands for `UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER`.
  • The succession process is unfolding under heavy bombardment, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps backing Mojtaba Khamenei amid resistance from Ali Larijani and the Assembly of Experts controlling replacement.
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A report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) considers "unprobably" a regime change in Iran despite the war, which contrasts with targets declared by President Donald Trump, according to the Washington Post this Saturday.The findings of the report, which three anonymous officials have shared with the U.S. daily, question the possibility that the attacks in Iran will overthrow the military leadership and clergy of the Persian country …

·Madrid, Spain
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Political Wire broke the news in New York, United States on Saturday, March 7, 2026.
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