Published 6 hours ago • loading... • Updated 2 hours ago
Canada’s former trade chief expects no tariff deal before U.S. midterms
Verheul says CUSMA still shields most Canadian exports, but steep U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos remain the main obstacle.
On Monday, Canada's former chief trade negotiator Steve Verheul told Bank of Montreal clients he does not expect a tariff deal with Washington before the U.S. midterm elections, predicting negotiations will stretch into next year.
The formal review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement begins July 1, with the United States potentially pursuing rolling annual reviews rather than the 16-year renewal Canada and Mexico favor.
Verheul warned that sectoral U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos remain central to Canada's concerns, questioning whether trade deals other countries cut with President Donald Trump will endure long-term.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter noted the economy saw no growth over the past year as U.S. tariffs hindered exports, with the bank's forecast predicting continued struggles through 2026 before a 2027 rebound.
Although Trump could trigger an exit from CUSMA with six months' notice, Verheul noted broad support among U.S. businesses and Congress for renewing the trade pact, suggesting it remains viable long-term.
The former Chief Trade Negotiator of Canada believes that Ottawa will not be able to conclude a tariff agreement with Washington prior to the mid-term elections in the United States.