South Africa: Godongwana Has Some Fiscal Wind in His Sails for the Budget

South Africa: Godongwana Has Some Fiscal Wind in His Sails for the Budget

One big order of business is capping South Africa's levels at 77.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). For the markets, any significant upward shift from that level will be a deal breaker. But economists broadly expect Godongwana to stay the course on this front.

Budget 2026 meets the Mining Indaba reality check: What it means for South Africa’s Rand and gold

EBC Financial Group notes that the Budget 2026 could act as a risk-premium test for the rand, with Mining Indaba sharpening investor focus on whether South Africa can fund and deliver mining-linked growth in a higher-rate world. With the Budget scheduled to be tabled in Parliament on 25 February 2026, markets may treat the speech …

Budget 2026 Preview with Prescient Securities: Gold Windfall, Fiscal Discipline and Bond Market Implications

Heading into Budget 2026, we expect a broadly investor-friendly tone – but this year there is a clear swing factor: gold. The sharp rally (spot above $4,900/oz) has likely boosted mining tax receipts, corporate income tax, royalties and SARB reserve valuations. This is a buffer Treasury simply did not have a year ago. The key question for markets is how that windfall is deployed. If Treasury directs stronger commodity-linked revenues toward defi…