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Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro Turns Scandal Into Poll Gains

The one-point gap is within the poll’s two-point margin of error, while Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 40% to 37% in the first round.

  • An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey of 5,015 people conducted between September 17 and 22 shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied, with Lula holding a narrow 47.7% to 47.4% lead in a simulated runoff.
  • Ahead of the October 4 first-round election, candidates need more than 50 percent of valid votes to avoid an October 25 runoff. Lula seeks a fourth term against Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
  • Among first-round voters, 84% report their choice is finalized, according to Nexus. The government recently raised Bolsa Fam welfare payments by 15% to BRL691, a move officials defend as inflation-adjusted despite criticism.
  • A simmering crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court has exacerbated distrust in institutions, impacting Lula's campaign. Senator Rogerio Marinho, Bolsonaro's campaign manager, branded Justice Alexandre de Moraes a "pop star of the left."
  • With only 13 days until the first round, campaigns prioritize voter turnout to secure decisive victory as economic unease persists; average real labour income fell to BRL3,762 between March and July quarters.
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Center

Rio de Janeiro, Sep 24 (EFE).- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, favorites in the presidential elections of October 4 in Brazil, remain in technical tie for the first round ten days of the elections, according to the latest poll of the firm Datafolha released on Thursday. [...] The entry Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain in technical tie for the first round in Brazil was first published in HolaNews.

Lean Left

The presidential race in Brazil is heating up with less than two weeks to go before the October 4 election. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round, but recent polls show a close tie in a runoff. According to a Quaest poll published on September 21, Lula would receive 37% support in the first round, compared to 33% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jai…

Lean Right

Opinion polls continue to narrow the gap between the two favorite candidates

·Vicente López, Argentina
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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Friday, September 11, 2026.
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