Brazil’s Central Bank Ends Run of Rate Cuts After Lula Election Win
Inflation above the 4.5% ceiling and a post-election market sell-off pushed policymakers to pause after five quarter-point cuts.
- On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, Brazil's central bank, Copom, voted unanimously to hold the benchmark Selic rate at 13.75%, halting five consecutive quarter-point cuts that began in March.
- Policymakers cited a need for "serenity and caution" as consumer prices rose 4.58% in the 12 months to September, exceeding the 4.5% tolerance ceiling around the 3% goal.
- The Ibovespa stock index fell 13.9% in one day following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election on October 25, signaling market anxiety about policy direction.
- Prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 73.0% probability to no change at the December 9 meeting, with 12.5% expecting a quarter-point cut and 5.1% anticipating a potential increase.
- Economists in the bank's weekly Focus survey project inflation of 5.2% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, with the bank forecasting 3.5% for the second quarter of 2028.
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53 Articles
The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee maintained its policy rate at 13.75%. Lula's re-election led to severe market turbulence: the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange suffered heavy lossesThe Central Bank of Brazil interrupted a cycle of reduction of its policy rate on Wednesday, after the re-election of left-wing President Lula. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) maintained its policy rate at 13.75%, the main tool for controlling…
Brazil's central bank ends run of rate cuts after Lula election win
Brazil Holds Key Rate Steady at 13.75% After Lula’s Election Win
Brazil’s central bank held its interest rate steady, snapping a streak of five straight cuts after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise reelection roiled financial markets and worsened the inflation outlook.
The Brazilian Central Bank maintained its policy rate on Wednesday at 13.75%, in a context of market turbulence after the re-election of left-wing President Lula.
Brazil central bank set to pause rate cuts as post-election rout clouds outlook
Brazil's central bank is expected to halt its easing cycle on November 4 after a market sell-off that followed President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election pushed up inflation forecasts.
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